What $1 of guaranteed return costs on each venue, and on the best-price combination. Under 100% is an arbitrage.
DraftKings both sidesKalshi both sidesBest of bothbreak-even (100%)
Games
Spreads & totals
DraftKings and Kalshi price the same line in different words — DK sells a spread at
-7.5, Kalshi sells “wins by over 7.5 points”. Rows below are only paired where the line
matches exactly. Kalshi's NO side is the mirror of its YES quote
(no ask = 1 − yes bid), which is what makes the cross-venue two-way possible.
Player props
Show illiquid
Both books price yardage props as a threshold ladder — DK's “160+” is exactly
Kalshi's “Player: 160+” — so these join on player, stat and number with no half-point
translation. Cheapest is the venue you should buy the outcome at; two-way takes the DK side
against Kalshi's NO, and under 100% is a genuine lock.
Most of Kalshi's prop ladder barely trades. A market quoting 8¢ bid against a 40¢ ask on
five contracts of open interest will manufacture a spectacular fake edge, because the far side of that quote is
a placeholder rather than a price. The filters above are on by default for that reason — Size is how many
contracts you could actually get filled on the Kalshi leg, and it is usually the number that kills the trade.